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Outperforming the Market: 50 Years Analysis
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A unique investment approach blending market psychology with cycle analysis for superior stock market performance.
Evolving the Investment Landscape: The Psychology of The Market Cycle in Action
Many investors believe that what drives the Market is the economic cycle, but It's not. The emotions drives the Market, understanding this, is what gives an edge to the investor.
Over the years, many investment firms and hedge funds have excelled in deploying varied strategies to navigate and profit from the intricacies of global markets.
While there has been significant success of Market Cycle Investing in areas like commodity and macro, the application of these sophisticated strategies, to broader markets including stocks has been less explored.
The question arises: Can the principles that drive success in commodities and futures be effectively applied to stock markets? We embarked on a comprehensive analysis to explore this.
Our approach differed from traditional Market Cycle methods. We delved into the complex realm of the psychology of Market Cycles overlayed with Trend Following Strategies, covering bull, bear, and consolidation phases, and applied our proprietary Alpha Hedge Strategy, which is designed to adaptively navigate these cycles.
To ensure robustness and realism, our analysis encompassed a wide range of U.S. stocks.
Realistic transaction costs were considered, and liquidity filters ensured that only realistically tradable stocks were included.
Our database spanned over the 670 securities with over 1 year of negotiation present in the S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and NYSE Composite Index, across 50 years, providing a rich field for empirical analysis.
The findings strongly suggest that applying the psychology of market cycle analysis and the Alpha Hedge Strategy to stocks offers a positive mathematical expectancy, a cornerstone for an effective investment system.
Introduction to the Alpha Hedge Strategy Applied to Stocks
At Alpha Hedge Strategy, we've long been engaged in systematically managing investment portfolios, with a particular emphasis on long-volatility programs in various market sectors.
Despite our extensive experience in commodities, financial futures, and currency trading, the application of our systematic, cycle-based approach to stocks was uncharted territory.
Given our vast experience and dedicated research efforts in market cycle analysis and proprietary trading in diverse asset classes, we felt uniquely positioned to explore the effectiveness of our strategy in the stock market.
Key considerations in our analysis included:
Selection Criteria for Stocks: Aligning with our strategy, stocks were chosen based on their alignment with the identified market cycle phase, historical volatility, and our expectancy ratio criteria.
Buying and Selling Decisions: These were emphasizing careful analysis, patience, and dynamic responses to market indicators.
Portfolio Management: Regular adjustments based on market phases and risk assessments were integral to our approach, ensuring alignment with our dynamic diversification principle.
Data Integrity and Coverage in Our Analysis
Scope: 675 securities with over 1 year of negotiation present in the S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and NYSE Composite Index for over 50 years.
Adjustments for Corporate Actions: Stock prices were adjusted for various corporate actions to ensure accuracy in historical analysis.
Realistic Investment Universe: Filters for stock price and daily liquidity were applied, mirroring real-time investment scenarios and avoiding unrealistic historical results.
Alpha Hedge Portfolio Update Dec/2023
In the last 11 years, our clients have outperformed the American market through our Proprietary Investment Strategy.
Dynamic capital diversification allows the Investor to take advantage of Positive Market Cycles with Controlled Risk.
The Alpha Hedge Portfolio is to find the sweet spot of diversification. Within our algorithm, we currently filter the Assets within a set of markets.
But the main difference of the Alpha Hedge Portfolio from the assembly of traditional Portfolios is that in it, you don't need to be with all Asset classes at the same time in the Portfolio. You eliminate the "losers" and keep the "winners".
⚠️*We execute the Alfa Hedge Strategy in a Real-Life Brokerage Account with Interactive Brokers integrated with the Platform Collective2, a U.S. regulated company based in New York.
This way, we enable our Premium Subscribers get access to our positions in real time and replicate our Portfolio.
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