In What time of the Cycle are we now? Sep/23 Update
Cycles of Bonds, Interest Rates, Currency, Commodities, Stocks, REITs and Crypto
In What time of the Cycle are we now? Sep/23 Update
Our Market Cycle Algorithm (Alfa Hedge Data Analysis) monthly analyze Bonds, Interest Rates, Currency, Commodities, Stocks, REITs and Crypto and we assemble our positions accordingly.
In September, the Alfa Hedge Portfolio II will have 8 ETFs distributed among markets in Positive Cycle.
After the general market conditions in August, we will have 2 Hedges ETFs in September.
Since Apr/2019 we didn’t have so much ETFs in our Portfolio.
The Alfa Hedge Data Analysis was developed by Zurique Capital:
ALFA 1: Market Cycle Phase, with this data we analyze the present situation of the asset.
ALFA 2: Historical Positive Volatility (highest probability of Long-Term uptrends), with this data we analyze the past.
ALFA 3: Reward/Risk Ratio and Expectancy Ratio, with this data we analyze what to expect in the future based on statistics.
MAX POSTION SIZE*: The maximum position size in the portfolio is calculated using the statistical data of expected gain and risk-return ratio according to the Kelly criterion.
*The Positions in the Alfa Hedge Portfolio may be different from the MAX POSITION SIZE because of advanced Risk Management algorithm.
This analysis are not investment recommendations and investors must do their own research (please read the Disclaimer section).
We invest our own money and share our Portfolio with Premium Subscribers.
Premium Subscribers have full access to our Alfa Hedge Portfolio II in a Real-Life Brokerage Account in Real Time.
Birthday to Bonds’ Negative Cycle. It’s making 3 years in September that Bonds entered in downtrend, and with no signal of Interest Rates reversion, It should stay in decline for another month.
Red light for Bonds. No positions in the Alfa Hedge Portfolio for Bonds because of the ALFA 1 analysis (momentum).
INTEREST RATES
Alfa Hedge Data Analysis Interest Rate
Interest Rate kept the buying pressure in August and is in Positive Cycle.
We have position in the Alfa Hedge Portfolio, but accordingly with our algorithm, this position was reduced for September Rebalancing.*
*Premium Subscribers have access to our positions and can follow in real-time our real-life brokerage account portfolio.
CURRENCY
Alfa Hedge Data Analysis Currency
Currency Market entered the Phase 3, Positive Cycle in August.
A new Position in the Currency market will be added to our Portfolio in September. The last time we had a position in the currency market was from Oct/21 to Dec/22 Sep/2021 (+12.21%).
COMMODITIES
Alfa Hedge Data Analysis Commodities
The Commodities market is loosing momentum, but the uptrend remain. Phase 4, Positive Cycle.
We will keep our position in September (this position was reduced in July/23) accordingly our algorithm.
STOCKS
Alfa Hedge Data Analysis Stocks
The Stock Market after a short term volatility ended the month keeping the Phase 3 Uptrend.
We have 3 positions in our portfolio following the Stock Market, one of them was reduced accordingly our algorithm.
REITS
Alfa Hedge Data Analysis Crypto
REIT Market still in downtrend with no signs of reversion for now.
No positions in the Alfa Hedge Portfolio in September.
CRYPTO
Alfa Hedge Data Analysis Crypto
Crypto Market lost momentum in August, remained stagnant, but in the ring of the bell kept the ALFAs.
Position will be reduced or even closed in September.
Premium Subscribers click the Button bellow to access all the data of our Portfolio Rebalancing for September.
(All the details of what we will buy, sell, keep or close in September).
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